Michael's Blog: What's New

Equities as percent household assets 2014 0

One more datapoint on the equity bubble

The latest Flow of Funds Report (link to pdf) shows that equities comprise a greater share of US household assets than at any point besides the height of the internet bubble. Of course, elevated...

Daylight Savings Time is Pointless 0

Daylight saving is pointless

  Daylight Saving Time doesn’t save energy. It just messes up the seasonal progression of diurnal rhythms, effectively giving us jetlag. The sun was rising a few minutes earlier each week, and now suddenly...

RSI declining – final warning sign 1

RSI declining – final warning sign

This is a very expensive and overbought market which few participants believe can decline meaningfully. That alone is dangerous, but now we see signs of technical exhaustion, such as the downtrend in RSI on...

Market Top Developing, December 2013 0

Top developing

An overbought market that has kept the vast majority of investors and traders in the bull camp for several weeks is to be viewed with suspicion. When prices also begin to lose their upward...

Bristlecone Pine Tree 6

Bristlecone Pine trading

Hedge funds, mutual funds and active mangers underperform and overcharge, while a simple buy-and-hold strategy regularly sustains sharp losses and lengthy secular bear markets. So what’s an investor to do? For the rare individual who...

Secular Bear Markets (red) since 1900. Source: Crestmont Research 2

Chart: Secular Bear Markets Since 1900

I like this chart, but I would change one thing: the bear that started in 1929 could extend clear through to 1948 due to inflation and multiple compression. Inflation (regular CPI) has reached double...